A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
